Roadmap & Evidence Gates
100 days, 2 years, 10 years, 30 years — deliverable, dependency, reviewer, failure state, and stop condition for each horizon.
Evidence gates
Roadmap & Evidence Gates
Four horizons. Each names what ships, what it depends on, who reviews it, how it fails, and the condition that stops it.
100 days
Charter & evidence PROVEN
Deliverable Publish the rights charter, governance simulator, open technical reference architecture, terrestrial closed-loop plan, and an audited cost model.
Dependency None beyond funding and independent reviewers.
Reviewer Independent legal, safety, disability, and queer/trans reviewers.
Failure state A charter that reads as a cult manifesto or omits kill criteria.
Stop condition No public rights floor or source ledger by day 100 → do not proceed.
2 years
Earth demonstrators PROJECTED
Deliverable Operate cooperative housing, care, food, energy, and fabrication pilots with a transparent commons ledger and measured wellbeing.
Dependency Municipal partners; closed-loop demonstrators at 95%+ water/air.
Reviewer External audit of distribution, accessibility, and exit events.
Failure state Benefits captured by a few; exit made costly; incidents concealed.
Stop condition Any coerced residency or rights-for-productivity bargain → halt.
10 years
Analog & orbital demonstrations PROJECTED
Deliverable HI-SEAS-class analog habitats and, only through lawful partnerships, a single crewed orbital module validating closed-loop life support.
Dependency Launch trending below $200/kg or a credible ISRU alternative; dose held under 600 mSv; proven full-population evacuation.
Reviewer Independent engineering + medical authority; UNOOSA-of-record.
Failure state Life-support margins breached and concealed; evacuation unproven.
Stop condition ECLSS cannot exceed 90% water / 80% O₂ closure → cancel expansion.
30 years
Contingent settlement HORIZON
Deliverable A durable off-world community — only if every prior gate is green and Earth's ecological debt is shrinking. Never promised.
Dependency All Phase 0–2 gates passed; continuous right of return; intergener-ational safety thresholds met before any child is born off-world.
Reviewer Standing external audit; published, empty-by-design kill log.
Failure state Governance capture; radiation or evacuation limits exceeded.
Stop condition Wellbeing and equity fall for four reporting periods → terminate.
Failure is public
The Red-Line Ledger
These are not aspirations. They are the lines whose crossing stops the program, with disclosure, appeal, remediation, and — if needed — termination.
Red lines we will not cross No coerced residency, blocked exit, debt bondage, forced labor, or rights conditional on productivity. No reproductive coercion, forced identity disclosure, discrimination, or surveillance abuse. No concealed casualties, hazards, ecological impacts, or life-support failures. No indefinite emergency rule, opaque algorithmic authority, single-funder capture, or unreviewable security power. No terra-nullius or colonial appropriation; comply with the Outer Space Treaty and protect affected publics. No ecological externalization, fraudulent closure claims, irreversible lock-in, or militarization as the primary identity. Kill criteria Exit is intentionally blocked, or safe evacuation cannot be provided to every participant. Coerced labor, residency, identity disclosure, reproduction, or a rights-for-productivity exchange is substantiated. Severe casualties, hazards, ecological damage, or system failures are concealed. Emergency authority fails to sunset, governance capture persists, or independent review is obstructed. Life-support, radiation, medical, rescue, or structural risks exceed independently approved limits. The program violates space law, enables appropriation, or cannot remedy harms to affected communities. Funding requires a permanent underclass, dominant donor control, or lacks a safe decommissioning reserve. Wellbeing and equity deteriorate for four consecutive reporting periods without an effective corrective plan.
Continuity, not conquest
Civic Horizon Triptych
Civic Horizon — Continuity, Not Conquest One continuous, dimensional civic interior moving from an Earth-supported greenhouse, clinic, and homes through a near-orbit repair and citizens' assembly space toward a translucent future habitat. The same three adult residents recur while tending food, repairing structure, deliberating, and sharing a meal. Warm wood, glazed gardens, fabric, tools, handrails, and lived-in rooms make institutional continuity tangible rather than diagrammatic. EARTH COMMONS NEAR ORBIT HORIZON care · food · home repair · assembly · garden shared table · contingent future Earth greenhouse and clinic; a near-orbit repair crew and assembly; a distant, translucent possibility. The same architecture and people recur so progress reads as institutional continuity.