The Reality Ledger
A dated, sourced ledger separating what is proven now from what is projected or a distant horizon.
Proven / Projected / Horizon
The Reality Ledger
The single reconciliation note we refuse to average away: ISS water recovery has been cited at both ~90% and ~98% for different system configurations and dates. Both contexts are preserved below.
PROVEN Demonstrated today in a real, Earth-supported system.PROJECTED Plausible within 10–30 years if named dependencies are met.HORIZON Speculative. A moral and aesthetic horizon, never a budget line.
| Figure | Context | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~98% | ISS water recovery incl. urine, sweat, condensate (Brine Processor Assembly). An older ~90% baseline referred to a different configuration; both contexts are preserved. | PROVEN | NASA — ISS water recovery milestone |
| ~72 mSv | Crew radiation dose on a six-month ISS mission. | PROVEN | NASA — The human body in space |
| 600 mSv | NASA / National Academies career and longest-mission dose planning ceiling. | PROVEN | NASA — The human body in space |
| >1,000 mSv | Possible dose on a three-year Mars mission — above the ceiling; a hard, unsolved constraint. | PROJECTED | NASA — The human body in space |
| ≥40 kWe | Per-unit target for NASA/DOE Fission Surface Power; grounded at kilowatt scale, projected at megawatt scale. | PROJECTED | NASA — Fission Surface Power |
| ~$6,000/kg | Current rideshare launch cost; dedicated heavy-lift runs $1,400–$5,200/kg (2025). | PROVEN | Launch-cost survey (2025 commercial trackers) |
| <$200/kg | Launch cost below which orbital economics begin to close — a Phase-3 viability gate, not a promise. | PROJECTED | Launch-cost survey (2025 commercial trackers) |
| $276B–$434B | Modeled cost of a ~2 GW space-based solar system; launch is 71–77% of it (NASA OTPS, 2024). | PROJECTED | NASA OTPS — Space-Based Solar Power report (2024) |
| ≥80% food | Caloric closure via controlled-environment agriculture — projected at scale, not demonstrated. | PROJECTED | ESA — MELiSSA closed-loop life support |
| “$700 quintillion” | The 16 Psyche valuation is misleading: it prices unreachable material at Earth spot prices. Evidence of resources, not a bank balance. | HORIZON | NASA — 16 Psyche |
| 50 MW by 2028 | A fusion plant promised to a single customer; commercial maturity is unproven. Treated as horizon. | HORIZON | NASA OTPS — Space-Based Solar Power report (2024) |
| 10⁶-person habitat | Self-sufficient million-person settlements and full biological closure remain speculative. | HORIZON | NASA SP-428 — Space Resources and Space Settlements |